A lot can change in a short time. When Chitika Insights last took a look at the online interest among the field of GOP primary candidates, Herman Cain led the others by a large margin, garnering 53% of search traffic. It has been just upwards of a month since that article but the race towards the primaries has not lacked for excitement. At our last analysis, Cain was surging in interest, not just in our search traffic but in the national eye. Mitt Romney still seemed a fairly solid candidate in the running for the GOP nod.
Current national polls suggest a drastic turnaround in opinions of candidates, though. Just as Cain surprised us before, now there has been a new upset. Most recent polls indicate that Newt Gingrich is leading among Republicans – polling data from this week suggests Romney now trails Gingrich by 20 points or more in some national and local polls. Cain has bowed out of the race, suspending his campaign amid allegations of sexual harassment and an extramarital affair.
Search traffic may not tell us what people will do at the polls, but it is a good indicator of where their interests lie. Insights studied traffic within the Chitika ad network, broad matching impressions to look at the share of search traffic the various candidates in the GOP field received over the past week.
At 25.9 % of search volume, Herman Cain still leads the pack, but his share of search interest has dwindled drastically from the last time we evaluated the GOP field. Trailing him at 21.7% is Ron Paul, only a small drop from our previous evaluation. Romney fell to single-digits at 6%. Newt Gingrich, not even a factor the last time we checked in on the race, managed to take 18.3% of the share.
Interest in Gingrich is clearly on the rise. In a month he has jumped from being off our radar entirely to having the third highest level of interest among the GOP candidates. Cain’s interest, meanwhile, has been cut by more than half. These trends are not surprising; they mirror the rise and decline of Gingrich and Cain’s campaigns.
What is notable is the steady popularity of Ron Paul and someone who is not even a candidate in the field – Sarah Palin. Though she is not in the race, at 19.9%, Palin rivals Cain and Gingrich and far outstrips Romney for popularity in her take of the search traffic. Palin continually shows up with a frequency that rivals the frontrunners in the primary race. And Ron Paul, though his polling numbers rarely climb out of the single digits, consistently manages to garner high interest online.
Insights checked back in on the candidates’ traffic in the wake of Cain’s withdrawal announcement after the weekend was over. Looking at the numbers again proved interesting. For most of the candidates the numbers stayed fairly constant. Gingrich barely moved, staying at 18.3%, and the other candidates showed similar trends – Bachmann at 0.8%, Perry at 5.4%, Romney at 6%, Huntsman at 2.3%, Ron Paul at 23.6%. Cain, however, saw a slight rise in his interest – to 27.8% – even as his campaign was ending.
As the nominations draw nearer things are sure to only grow more interesting. Insights will continue to monitor the changes up through the elections, so stay tuned.
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